Saturday, November 20, 2010
Wil Nieves already hurting the 2011 Washington Nationals
We're a good 100+ days away from the start of the 2011 season, and Wil Nieves has already hurt the Washington Nationals.
Currently, the Nationals 40 man roster is full. Since the roster space is finite, including Nieves as one of the 40 is a mistake the Nationals have already come to regret.
Yesterday, all 30 MLB teams had to add eligible minor league players to their 40 man roster or risk them being exposed to the Rule V draft. The Nationals chose to add 1B Chris Marrero, RHP Adam Carr and RHP Cole Kimball. Missing from that list, is 2009 Washington Nationals Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Brad Meyers.
Meyers, who was held to six starts in 2010 due to a foot injury and subsequent allergic reaction to the screws inserted into the foot. What Meyers accomplished in 2010 should not be overlooked. In those six starts in AA, Meyers posted a 1.47 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP, and 35 K's in just 30.2 IP.
Now, on December 5, Meyers will be exposed to 29 other teams in the draft; all the while, Nieves a player who has accrued a -0.8 WAR over his career will comfortably keep a roster space he simply does not deserve.
Quite honestly, there's just not much to like about Nieves. He's at best an average defensive catcher, and to be frank, Nieves cannot hit. As his -0.8 WAR points out, even a replacement player is more deserving of a roster spot than Nieves.
In short, Nieves is a fungible asset. His potential has been reached, and, at best, he grades out as one of the worst players in the major leagues; at worst, he is the worst player in the majors.
When it comes to roster flexibility, Nieves should be the player that gets removed first. Instead, the Nationals decided to remove 23 year old RHP Juan Jaime and put him on waivers.
Immediately, Jaime was claimed by the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Jaime, who missed all of 2010 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery is exactly the type of player you stash at the bottom of the 40 man roster. Averaging over 9 K/9 in his career, Jaime is a power arm that the Nationals lack among their pitching prospects.
The Arizona Diamondbacks realize that potential is more important than protecting a player that over his career, is worse than a replacement player. By not protecting Brad Meyers or Juan Jaime, the Nationals have shown they do not.
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While I agree that Nieves isn't necessarily a player worth protecting, he's a catcher in a league where good catchers are in short supply. He may not be able to hit, but he definitely can call a game. I'd rather have him versus Burke or Maldonado. He's also healthy (something we can't say about Flores).
ReplyDeleteI'm not so much worried about Meyers and the rule5 draft; no team is going to waste a 25-man slot on a guy who has 6 total appearances above A ball.
Jaime; i had him listed as a DFA candidate. Yeah he has a live arm, but its a low-minors arm that's been pitching in the pros for 5 years how. Maybe the team knows more than we do and was willing to gamble losing the guy. Once upon a time guys like Willems and Gibson looked great in low-A as well too.
Frankly, I would be looking to dump guys like JD Martin, Ryan Mattheus, Aaron Thompson or Matt Chico at this point (in that order probably). And these moves still may happen, especially since we're at 40/40 and talking of numerous free agent signings.
I don't find Nieves to be a solid game caller at all.
ReplyDeleteDo you remember when Strasburg started calling his own game because he didn't like how Nieves called the game?
Not only that, Nieves offers negative value, something even the worst catcher shouldn't be able to do, due to position scarcity.
They should have dropped Nieves from the roster and re-signed him next year to a minor league deal if they were so interested in keeping him. No team will claim Nieves as he has proven time and time again to be the worst player in baseball.
He's the definition of wasted roster space.
In 2010, Nieves was rated the 102/110 catcher in baseball. You cannot tell me the Nationals could not find a better use of roster space than Nieves.
If they cut Nieves (or anyone else, for that matter) now in order to make room on the 40 man roster for a possible Rule 5 pick, thereby leaving the 40-man full, they are screwed if they need a roster spot later for a FA signing or trade. Anyone they put on the 40-man now to protect them from the Rule 5 draft cannot later be removed from the 40-man without being waived. In other words, they don't want to find themselves down the line with a 40-man roster full of guys who they protected in the Rule 5 draft but who aren't ready yet to play in the big leagues - because the 40-man is where you go for replacements during the season when guys go down with injury. In short, all leaving Nieves on the 40-man roster now does is to hold that spot for someone yet to be acquired who might be needed in 2011. As soon as someone is signed or acquired, Nieves will be cut. Until then, it makes perfect sense to keep him as possible trade fodder, even if that is only the most remote possibility.
ReplyDeleteThis is one way you know that the organization is improving. They are forced to take gambles that guys like Meyers might get picked in the Rule 5. But given Meyers's injury history and the requirement that a claiming team keep him on their 25-man roster for the entire season, leaving him unprotected is a risk worth taking.
Nieves, Mock, Thompson, Martis should have all been DFA'd.
ReplyDeleteAnyone with upside, at all, should have been kept over Nieves.
I don't care if he's a nice guy... make him the bullpen catcher, or the guy that greets the fans at the gates... but he's hurting the Nationals by occupying a space on the 40 man.
@Anonymous (3:14PM), - I could not disagree more. I've never heard anyone rave about his defense. And we can all agree that he is useless offensively. Nieves is the 4th catcher on the depth chart (Ramos, Pudge, Flores, then Nieves). At this point he is the insurance policy and organizational depth. The Nats should have assigned him to AAA, if he wants to refuse the assignment, he can be a free agent. And if we lose him on a MLB waiver claim as he is assigned to AAA, so be it.
ReplyDeleteHe can easily be replaced as the 4th catcher/organization depth from the MLB free agents (Josh Bard, Henry Blanco, Ramon Castro...) or even the 6 Year Minor League FAs (Orlando Mercado, Clint Sammons, Wilkin Castillo, Robinzon Diaz, Michael Barrett, J.R. House, Robby Hammock, Steve Holm, Raul Chavez, ...). Most (if not all) of the 6 Yr FAs noted have played in the Majors.
Add 6 Yr Minors FA
If it comes down to "is the roster spot worth more now or later" - I'm going with now. My logic is, later, more rosters are going to be more full as teams sign free agents and pick guys in the Rule 5, and you'd be more likely to slide a guy like Meyerss or Jaime through when more rosters are more full, as compared to now, when some teams are out there looking for players like Jaime and maybe Meyers.
And... the Nats will have to offer arbitration to Nieves...
ReplyDelete"Mark said...
ReplyDelete@Anonymous (3:14PM), - I could not disagree more."
You also could not miss my point more. I'm not advocating for keeping Nieves. I'm simply saying that at the moment, even though he is on the roster, he is nothing but a placeholder. If he was cut today, his roster spot would have to remain empty, not filled with a prospect to be sheltered from the Rule 5 draft as the blogger suggests. As such, his current presence on the roster is not hurting the 2011 Nationals, as the blogger also suggests. Nieves will be cut soon enough, either when a FA is signed and roster space is needed or when the deadline to tender arbitration arrives, whichever comes first. Until then, his presence on the roster is irrelevant. It costs the Nationals nothing, and meanwhile there is the smallest of chances that he could be thrown into a trade and return some value.
And your argument that a prospect like Meyers could be added to the roster now and be snuck through waivers in a few months to open up a roster spot is fallacious. If some other team is not going to claim him in a few months when all they have to do is find space on their 40-man roster for him, they will definitely not claim him in the Rule 5 draft when they would be required to keep him in the majors for the entire 2011 season.
My point on now vs. later, is that there will be less spaces on the 40 man as the offseason progresses. Right now, there's a good 2 dozen free agents that are going to be added to rosters over the next 4-6 weeks, and on top of that, probably 8-12 Rule 5 picks.
ReplyDeleteSure, if Brad Meyers (or any other similar player) is that attractive to a team, they'll make room for him. But why not make it harder.
The Nats could have protected Juan Jaime, and let go of Nieves, and then down the road, outrighted Jaime and exposed him to waivers, and maybe he gets through, maybe not. But by doing it 6 weeks from now, when they need the spot (and not just have it filled with a placeholder), there will be a smaller chance of him being claimed, just based on the fact that there'll be fewer open roster slots and the choices will be harder for teams to make.
Nevertheless, I enjoy the give and take of a good argument. If you ask me today, I think there ismore upside for the Nats if they would have kept Jaime, as opposed to keeping Nieves. But that's just my opinion.
Look at it this way. Right now there are only 15 position players on the Nats 40-man roster, and 25 pitchers. The 15 position players include Bryce Harper (who will not make the 2011 Opening Day roster) and Nieves. Take those two off the list, and you have 13 - which is exactly the number of position players that would be needed on the 25-man roster for Opening Day, leaving no position players in the minors for callup to refresh the bench during the season. So what, you say? Well, if you cut Nieves he needs to be replaced by a position player, not a pitcher. Why? Because if you replace him with a pitcher, you'd need to cut a pitcher later on to add the position players you'll inevitably need. As it happens, all the guys you're worried about possibly losing in the Rule 5 draft are pitchers. So there's nothing wrong with arguing that these guys need to be protected, but arguing (as you and the blogger are doing) that Nieves is the problem is absolutely and totally wrong. To protect these pitchers now, another pitcher would need to have been cut, not Nieves.
ReplyDeleteYou could always cut Nieves now, and an AAAA pitcher later.
ReplyDeleteI don't think anyone is going to lose sleep over Mock, Thompson, Atilano or Martin being dropped later on.
"You could always cut Nieves now, and an AAAA pitcher later."
ReplyDeleteYour whole thesis here is that not cutting Nieves now is destroying the 2011 Nationals. Yet you can't make any rational argument as to why that's so. The only reason you can give is that Nieves is terrible and should not take the field for the Nats in 2011. Agreed. But there are no games being played at the moment, and his presence on the roster now is not blocking the presence of anyone who might play in 2011 or later. So what harm is he doing anyway, aside from annoying you?
The harm he has caused, is that he's taking up a roster spot for someone, anyone with a sliver of potential.
ReplyDeleteWould you rather hold on to Jaime, who was a power arm before TJ surgery in hopes of him coming back and turning into a useful piece down the road, or would you rather keep Nieves on the roster?
Nieves will most likely be dropped off the 40 man sooner than later... but what was the point of risking (and losing) Jaime when Nieves was clearly a guy that should have been cut first?
Heck, even though there's something like a 1% chance Meyers gets selected, and sticks with an MLB team for the full year in 2011, why even risk that? Why not cut Nieves now, and not risk Meyers being exposed to the Rule V draft?
I'm not even advocating the Nats make a Rule V selection this year... I'm just saying, drop Nieves now, and give the spot to someone with any shred of promise.
If you have to, when you sign FA's, you drop the next least talented player... i.e. Martin, Mock, Atilano or Maxwell.
You keep the prospects on the 40 man, you clear the trash off for the new guys.
Look, in the end, you're most likely right, Meyers will not be selected and Jaime will likely never amount to anything... but, with the Nationals in the position they are, I'd rather they have taken a chance on both guys than hold on to guys that have never shown to even be a major league caliber backup.
@Anonymous... you keep saying that we're not making our arguments... but your whole point seems to be that we'll end up cutting him anyway...
ReplyDelete"The harm he has caused, is that he's taking up a roster spot for someone, anyone with a sliver of potential.
ReplyDeleteWould you rather hold on to Jaime, who was a power arm before TJ surgery in hopes of him coming back and turning into a useful piece down the road, or would you rather keep Nieves on the roster?
Nieves will most likely be dropped off the 40 man sooner than later... but what was the point of risking (and losing) Jaime when Nieves was clearly a guy that should have been cut first?"
To make space for Jaime, a pitcher should have been cut. Not Nieves. See reason above.
So, there must be some other reason Nieves needs to be cut NOW, rather than later. You apparently say it should be to put some more promising player on in his place. I would agree, if you name a more promising position player who is vulnerable in the Rule 5 draft. But as far as I can tell, there are no position players who could be claimed in the Rule 5, other than Marrero who they have already protected. And there are good reasons you DON'T want to put a prospect who is not major league ready on the 40-man roster until you absolutely have to. Why? Because once you do, you can't get him off the 40-man without waiving him. Off the 40-man roster, that guy is in no danger of being lost. On the 40-man roster, he's still not in danger of being lost but he's also in danger of blocking a roster spot you might need for someone else. So, in light of that at this point in time Wil Nieves and an empty roster spot are one and the same thing. Why lock up an empty roster spot until you have to?
"Look, in the end, you're most likely right, Meyers will not be selected and Jaime will likely never amount to anything... but, with the Nationals in the position they are, I'd rather they have taken a chance on both guys than hold on to guys that have never shown to even be a major league caliber backup."
You still don't seem to understand that Wil Nieves is not the culprit here. If they wanted to protect Jaime they would have needed to cut a pitcher, not Wil Nieves. And if you say that you're not arguing that it's Wil Nieves's fault, then why do you single him out in the title of this post?
Jaime was on the 40 man, and taken off.
ReplyDeleteThat's why the Diamondbacks were able to claim him.
All I've said, all along, is that Nieves should have been taken off the 40 man before Jaime was.