Moving, for the love of the Nats

I love where I live.

I love living downtown and watching the city of Lynchburg grow by the day. I love that I live in a brand new loft for a very affordable rate. I really love that I am only minutes away from my job.

I am moving out of my apartment the second my lease is up.

As of today (January 22, 2013) we stand 20 days till Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. For baseball enthusiasts such as myself, this is one of the very best times of the year. The crack of the bat and the pop of the mitt is something I look forward to like most children look forward to Christmas morning. So, it is with that passion in mind, that I have decided I must leave my beautiful apartment and seek residence at a location that allows me to have DIRECTV, currently the only way a Lynchburg resident can watch the Washington Nationals play nightly.

Comcast, currently the only cable provider allowed in my loft, does not carry MASN or MLB Network, two channels that a fan of the Nationals/Orioles and baseball fans alike, need to get their nightly fix.

Thankfully MLB provides two services to overcome carrier scheduling issues with their excellent MLB Extra Innings Package and their web version MLB.tv. Both show all the games around the league every night, most in HD quality. Problem solved, right?

Not quite.

Due to blackout rules that few know of, and even fewer understand, living in the Nationals/Orioles "footprint" restricts viewers such as myself from being able to watch our favorite team on television because our local provider is already licensed to carry the channel. Well that's a problem, isn't? If Comcast won't carry the channel and MLB blacks out all the games of the "home" team, how is a fan supposed to watch their local team play? Simple answer, as I've found from Comcast and MLB representatives, is, "Sorry, but you're out of luck."

In dealing with Comcast, they've assured me that due to Lynchburg being such a small area, they only have a limited number of channels available to the consumer, and some would question why niche channels such as MASN are needed for the general public. Understood, but I believe that is what the Sports Tier package was made for, is it not?

If you have a channel that has the exclusive rights to carry the Nationals/Orioles available to you, don't you think that more than a few fans would pay extra to be able to watch their team play every night? I know I would, and I am sure I would not be the only one. As I stated previously, this local blackout wouldn't be a problem if MLB did not have such restrictive blackout rules.

So, let me get this straight MLB; you know there is a city consisting of 76,504 residents (2011 census), that has no possible way to access the content that you have mapped specifically for them with your predetermined "footprints", yet knowing that, you also choose to black out those fans from following their favorite team? Is this how you choose to grow your wonderful game? It's amazing more damage hasn't been done to your product with this type of thinking.

All of this sounds like sour grapes, and it very well may be. I knew going in that I would be forced into an apartment outfitted only with Comcast, but what I did not anticipate was just how hard I would take the loss of watching the Nationals play every night, and losing out on following the game I love.

Having exhausted all resources in attempting to make inroads to rectify this situation, I have come to the conclusion that the only way to get my fix of the Nationals and MLB Network is to move to an apartment that allows DIRECTV. DIRECTV, as one might reasonably assume, does in fact currently has MASN and MLB Network on its programming package.

Many friends have told me I am overreacting to not having a way to watch baseball, some have even called me childish for my willingness to uproot my life in pursuit of two television channels. Others may say I'm showing a bit of "Natitude", a slogan created by the Washington Nationals to announce pride in being a fan of the organization. Whatever the case something has to change.

In this instance, I'm willing to sacrifice a bit of my personal comfort to be able to cheer my team on from the comfort of home, wherever that ends up being.

This is your brain on Henry Rodriguez

No comment necessary.

ESPN: Nats don't count as part of the DC sports scene

The Washington Nationals are not part of the DC sports scene according to a report from ESPN The Magazine.

Recently, the magazine released its Ultimate Team Rankings, ranking all professional sport franchises in America from 1-122 in a variety of categories. Overall, the Nationals ranked 78th, but where does that rank among the franchises in the DC/Baltimore area?

Well, according to this chart, they don't.


One day, it's likely Nationals fans will be able to look back at this slight, and all the other embarrassments the Nats have suffered over the years (self inflicted and otherwise) and laugh at how trivial these mistakes appear to be.

Today, is not that day, though.

Nats draft a bigot?

The 2011 first year player draft has just concluded, and it appears as if the Washington Nationals may have drafted a bigot with their 15th round pick.

Zachary Houchins, an infielder from Louisburg College in North Carolina has a problem. He just can't seem to avoid expressing his thoughts on Twitter.

For most people that's not really a problem, but for Houchins who goes by @zachhouchins, saying what's on his mind is a big problem.

What exactly is young Mr. Houchins saying that is so damning? Well, don't take my word for it... read Zach's tweets and judge for yourself.

Here's just a sampling of Houchins tweets...

Endearing, isn't he?

How quaint, bigotry and cheating in the same tweet!

Ok, then.

I don't know Zach, I just don't know.

That sounds really unsanitary.

Too late.

Nationals finally see a member of the 2006 draft class make MLB debut

Photo courtesy of the Washington Nationals

It finally happened.

With a 92 MPH fastball over the heart of the plate, Cole Kimball emphatically announced that the Washington Nationals will not go down as the only team to never produce a major leaguer from the 2006 draft class.

While higher picks like Chris Marrero and Stephen King continue to flounder in the minors, Kimball, a 12th round pick out of Centenary College made his debut this past Saturday, May 14 in a 1-0 loss against the Florida Marlins, pitching a scoreless ninth inning.

Blessed with a mid 90's fastball and what broadcaster Ray Knight describes as "the best splitter since Bruce Sutter", Kimball made a quick rise through the Nationals farm system after a move to the bullpen.

Much had been made of the Nationals inability to produce a major leaguer from their '06 class; including on this very site. Of the Nationals draft picks in the first 10 rounds, which included two compensation picks (12 picks overall), only eight signed. Of those eight, only three remain within the Nationals system. Even more bizarre, two have retired, including 1st round compensation pick Colton Willems, who decided to give up baseball at the tender age of 21.

With Kimball now a part of the major league roster, one has to wonder who may be the next player from the 2006 class to make the jump to Washington. If this blogger had to take a guess, look for 1B Chris Marrero to make him MLB debut sometime later this season, perhaps in September when the rosters expand to 40 players. Outside of Marrero, and 41st rounder SP Brad Peacock, though, the future looks dim for the '06 class.

You can't hit a home run with all your draft picks; for Jim Bowden and the Washington Nationals, it appears as if the 2006 draft will go down as nothing more than a class with warning track power.

Meyers shines in season opener

Photo courtesy of Mike Ashmore's Thunder Thoughts

Lost among the headlines last night of the Washington Nationals 11 inning victory, and the professional debut of phenom Bryce Harper, 2009 Nationals Minor League Pitcher of the Year Brad Meyers made his return from a debilitating foot injury.

Meyers, the 6'6" righty who was off to a fast start in 2010 when he was forced to shut it down after six starts, threw five scoreless innings while striking out an impressive nine hitters and walking none in an easy Opening Day victory over the Bowie Baysox, the Baltimore Orioles AA affiliate.

One has to wonder how long it will be until Meyers joins 2010 Nationals Minor League Pitcher of the Year Tom Milone in AAA. As long as health is not an issue, you can bet Meyers will force the Nationals hand sooner rather than later.

Predicting the 2011 MLB Season

Photo courtesy of Chicago Now

Carlos Quentin will overcome injuries in 2011 to win his first AL MVP

While this blog will always be Washington Nationals centric, that does not mean that we cannot take the time to discuss the upcoming 2011 MLB season. Without going into great detail, here is what For Love of the Nationals sees happening in 2011.

2011 MLB Predictions

AL East
1. Red Sox
2. Yankees
3. Rays
4. Jays
5. Orioles

Analysis - The Red Sox, with their acquisitions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford will prove too strong for the rest of their AL East foes. While the Yankees will be good enough to snag a Wild Card spot, the Red Sox will win the division going away.

AL Central
1. White Sox
2. Tigers
3. Twins
4. Royals
5. Indians

Analysis - For Love of the Nationals absolutely loves the 2011 White Sox. 1B/DH Paul Konerko finally has protection in the lineup in the form of former Nationals 1B Adam Dunn. Coupled with a young, but tested rotation as well as what this blog believes will be a massive season out of oft-injured Carlos Quentin, and the White Sox are a sleeping giant that is about to be awakened.

AL West
1. A's
2. Rangers
3. Angels
4. Mariners

Analysis - The A's? Yes, the A's! With a lights out rotation that should only be better in 2011 with a healthy Brett Anderson, the A's finally have the bats to compete in a very winnable AL West. Texas will struggle with pitching and injuries while the rest of the division will have problems even playing .500 ball.

NL East
1. Braves
2. Phillies
3. Marlins
4. Mets
5. Nationals

Analysis - We don't trust the Phillies, that is, until playoff times come. As for the regular season, the Braves should only be better than last year with an upgraded offense to compliment their solid pitching staff. Philly will make the playoffs, but they'll have to scrap and claw for the Wild Card spot.

NL Central
1. Brewers
2. Reds
3. Cardinals
4. Cubs
5. Pirates
6. Astros

Analysis - While Zack Greinke was the big addition to the Brewers this offseason, SP Shawn Marcum, acquired from the Blue Jays in the offseason will be the real key to the Brew Crew's success in 2011. Also, don't be surprised if a focused Nyjer Morgan surfaces in Milwaukee and stabilizes their uncertain plans in CF.

NL West
1. Giants
2. Rockies
3. Dodgers
4. Diamondbacks
5. Padres

Analysis - The San Francisco Giants will win their second consecutive NL West Title with more outstanding pitching as well as an MVP season out of Catcher Buster Posey as well as the debut of monster rookie 1B/OF Brandon Belt.

AL Playoffs

White Sox over Yankees
Red Sox over Oakland

Analysis - The White Sox will be too much for the Yankees who just don't have the horses in the rotation to compete in October. The Red Sox make quick work out of the upstart A's as their pitching staff proves not yet ready for prime time.

AL Championship

White Sox over Red Sox

Analysis - In an upset, the White Sox take down the heavily favored Red Sox. Ozzie Guillen tweets that he's the best manager in the history of baseball.

NL Playoffs

Phillies over Brewers
Braves over Giants

Analysis - The Phillies, proving pitching is king, wake up just in time for the post season and sweep the Brewers behind Halladay, Lee and Hamels. The Braves offense is the key in this series. There will be no repeat of Brooks Conrad kicking the ball around the infield in 2011, Braves in five.

NL Championship

Braves over Phillies

Analysis - Pitching rules, but if your team has no offense, how are you going to win games? The Phillies are left asking that question as the young Braves take down their division rivals.

World Series

White Sox over Braves

Analysis - Ozzie Guillen is proved correct as the White Sox slug their way to a World Series Championship. Gordon Beckham and Alexi Ramirez prove to be a solid duo at SS and 2B, and the Sox bats are just too strong for the Braves to keep up.

AL MVP - Carlos Quentin - OF - White Sox

Analysis - One of these years Quentin has to stay healthy. Playing in a lineup filled with mashers, 2011 is finally the year Quentin avoids the DL... and proves to be the key cog in the White Sox title run.

NL MVP - Buster Posey - C - Giants

Analysis - Posey proved to be an offensive threat in his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2010; in 2011, Posey breaks out into a bona fide Superstar.

AL Cy Young - Gio Gonzalez - A's

Analysis - Gio Gonzalez is a stud. In 2011, you'll finally know it. Armed with can't hit stuff, Gonzalez will cut back on his walks to bring the AL West their second consecutive AL Cy Young.

NL Cy Young - Tim Lincecum - Giants

Analysis - The Freak will be just that in 2011. After a 'down' year in 2010, Lincecum will return with a vengeance and a dedication to training that will prove to be the key to Lincecum's third Cy Young award.

AL ROY - SP Michael Pineda - Mariners

Analysis - Meet King Felix's new best friend. Pineda, who has torn up every minor league stop he's been at, just recently was named the Mariners fifth starter. Pineda will not disappoint while pitching in the spacious confines of Safeco Field.

NL ROY - SP Brandon Beachy - Braves

Analysis - Beachy, who beat out fellow prospect Mike Minor for the fifth spot in the Braves rotation will be a key ingredient in the Braves NL East Division winning run.

Comeback Player of the Year - SP Jeff Francis - Royals

Analysis - Francis, the former Rockies ace, makes his return after missing quite a bit of time with shoulder troubles. Though it is only Spring Training, Francis has flashed the skill that made him such a big part of the Rockies run to the World Series in 2007.

Breakout Player of the Year - OF Andrew McCutchen - Pirates

Analysis - Want to know who is the next big star the Pirates will trade away? Meet Andrew McCutchen. The Center Fielder, blessed with five tool skill, McCutchen is an absolute star in the making. Surround him with talent, watch McCutchen become one of the biggest stars in all of the game.

Nationals petition MLB to remove OBP as an official statistic

Photo courtesy of MissChatter

In a stunning move, the Washington Nationals have petitioned the offices of the MLB for the immediate removal of On Base Percentage (OBP) as an official stat kept by Major League Baseball.

“The more we thought about it, the less sense On Base Percentage made to our organization” said an unnamed source within the Nationals front office. “We feel that batting average and playing the game the right way is a much better way of evaluating talent.”

Many in the baseball industry believe the petition stems from the Nationals choice to play former pitcher Rick Ankiel in Center Field. Ankiel, the owner of a lifetime .312 OBP would only be the latest hitter in a lineup filled with batters that have lower than league average OBP’s.

“With the likes of Dessi, Espinosa, Pudge and now Rick in the lineup, we don’t want the fans focusing on OBP; we want our fans to focus on what’s really important, looking good in our brand new Curly W uniforms” said the source. “You can find them in our team shop; they’re on the shelf right behind the Philadelphia Phillies jerseys.”

As of press time, it is not yet known where Ankiel will hit in the batting order, but at least one rumor has the Nationals considering a deadly 1-2 punch of Ian Desmond and Rick Ankiel. Desmond, who posted the seventh lowest OBP (.308) in the National League in 2010, has said that one of his main influences as a hitter is former Nationals great Cristian Guzman. In what can only be described as a fitting tribute, Desmond has adopted Guzman’s approach at the plate and rejects the notion that OBP is what matters at the top of the lineup.

While it remains unclear if Major League Baseball will seriously pursue the Nationals petition to remove OBP, the club has found one big backer for their proposal, Cincinnati Reds manager Dusty Baker. Baker, a longtime believer in not “clogging the bases” is reported to be the first and only person to have signed the Nationals petition that was circulated around the leagues front offices Wednesday.

Nationals rank Second in operating income

Photo courtesy of arnaudt

Forbes has released their yearly MLB valuations, placing the Washington Nationals 16 out of 30 in terms of franchise value.

The Nationals, valued at $417 million dollars, posted revenues of $194 million dollars as well as an operating income of $36.6 million dollars, second to only the San Diego Padres at $37.2 million.

While it is not known as to what part of the income is then reinvested into payroll, scouting and other baseball ventures, Forbes lists the Nationals payroll at $85 million dollars, one million more than the $84 million dollar mark for the 2010 club.

Though it appeared the Nationals were big spenders this past offseason with their mega signing of Jayson Werth, most of the money they were spending came from the shedding of three of the team's biggest contracts in Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham and Cristian Guzman.

All told, the Nationals saw an 8% increase in total team value from 2010 ($387) to 2011 ($417).

Maya: Where's the heat?

Photo courtesy of Scott Ableman

It appears the Washington Nationals may have been duped on their Cuban import.

Yunesky Maya, the Cuban defector who the Nats signed last year to a 4 year, 8 million dollar deal, was reported to feature a fastball that ran from 90-93 MPH along with an assortment of breaking pitches that had helped Maya dazzle Cuban hitters to the tune of a career record of 48-29 and an ERA of 2.51.

In 2010, Maya made five brief starts with the Nats, featuring a fastball that averaged out at 88.7 MPH; far below the 90-93 that was expected out of the 29 year old. To put his "fastball" into context, if Maya had managed to pitch the amount of innings needed to qualify for rate statistics, his fastball would have been the 16th slowest in all of baseball among Starting Pitchers.*

That is why, with great concern, that Maya's start against the Braves tonight needs to be looked at in greater detail. During the fifth inning of his outing, Maya topped out on his fastball at 85 MPH, most of his pitches sitting in the 81-83 MPH range. Quite simply, a right handed pitcher cannot survive with a fastball that slow, regardless if Livan Hernandez did it last year. Livo has an excellent two-seam fastball and a slow breaking curve that kept hitters on their toes enough to keep them from teeing off on Livan's pedestrian fastball.

So that brings us back to Maya. Where has his fastball gone? How can someone lose 3-5 MPH off their fastball and only be 30 years old? Is Maya hiding an injury (not likely), or, is it a case of the Nationals seeing a scouting report and choosing to believe it as gospel?

That's not to say that Maya has not held his own this Spring Training. In fact, quite the opposite. Yunesky has posted a 3.28 ERA while striking out 10 K in just 13.2 IP. While the Spring Training success is something Maya should be happy with, it remains to be seen if the lack of heat on his fastball will end up hurting him in the long run.

Yunesky Maya, a pitcher on the cusp of breaking out, or a case of false advertising? Only time will tell.

* - A total of 91 Starting Pitchers qualified for rate statistics in 2010

Morgan takes lead in CF competition

Photo courtesy of RMTip21

For the first time in what seems like ages, Nyjer Morgan hit a home run today.

With the three run circuit clout, Morgan has muscled his way back atop the CF depth chart in the eyes of this blog.

It isn't just one home run that has set Morgan apart from his counterparts and temporary rivals, Roger Bernadina and Rick Ankiel, it is a combination of things that has given him the slight edge in the three way horse race.

1. Morgan has shown the ability to get on base at a higher clip than Bernadina or Ankiel

Career OBP - Morgan .344 / Bernadina .306 / Ankiel .312 (.316 as pure hitter)

2. Last year, Morgan saw a drop in BABIP that severely deviated from the norm (.304 in 2010, .357 from 2007-2009). With the expected uptick in BABIP in 2011, Morgan should see a substantial increase in OBP.

3. Morgan avoids strikeouts at a much higher rate than Bernadina and Ankiel.
Career K rate - Morgan 17.1% / Bernadina 23.3% / Ankiel 27.1%

While there is still nearly two weeks left of games for Morgan, Bernadina and Ankiel to battle it out; as long as Morgan does not suffer another slump like he endured at the beginning of Spring Training, Center Field is his to lose.

Opposing runners picking on Jesús Flores?

Photo courtesy of Scott Ableman

It seems that the return of Jesús Flores from a major shoulder injury has not gone unnoticed by the opponents of the Nationals.

In what amounts to four games and some change of action behind the plate (42 innings), clubs have successful stolen five bases in five attempts against the recovering backstop.

To put that number into into context, the Nationals have used five catchers other than Flores in camp; Iván Rodríguez, Wilson Ramos, Derek Norris, Carlos Maldonado and Jhonatan Solano. The fearsome fivesome have combined for a total of 107.1 innings behind the plate. In those 107 innings, opponents have only attempted five stolen bases, successfully stealing three times.

In his three year career, prior to the debilitating shoulder injury that caused him to miss most of the 2009 and all of the 2010 season, Flores had thrown out 31% of all would-be base stealers.

It remains to be seen if Flores can return to his former status as a threat to gun down any and all that test him on the basepaths.

Nationals second to last in Spring Fielding Percentage

The mantra from GM Mike Rizzo for the 2010-2011 offseason was clear; improve the defense.

Through 15 Spring Training games, the Nationals seem anything but improved, posting the second lowest fielding percentage in the majors at .963.

While many of the errors can be attributed to players that have no shot at making the Opening Day roster, one cannot help but worry that the offseason was spent talking, rather than doing.

The main culprit of the 2010 Washington Nationals defensive woes was rookie SS Ian Desmond, who led all of MLB with 34 errors. Despite assurances from the front office that Desmond was a leader and would continue to improve; his defense, if possible, has actually regressed so far. In just 10 games, Desmond has already posted four errors, twice as much as any other player on the roster.

One thing is clear, if the Nationals plan to improve in 2011, fielding the baseball has to be a big part of it. As of now, the Nationals are winning despite their fielding troubles. If they are to carry that over to the regular season, the results will not be so kind.

DC-IBWA releases pre-season predictions

The DC-Internet Baseball Writers Association (DC-IBWA) made up of independent journalist and bloggers dedicated to covering the Washington Nationals, recently released their pre-season predictions for the 2011 season. The panel of 19 was asked 12 baseball themed questions about the 2011 season and whom they expected to lead the Nationals in categories such as Home Runs, RBI, Wins and Saves.

To see the full results, feel free to click on the link below.

DC-IBWA Results

Projected stats for the 2011 Washington Nationals

Bill James has put out his 2011 projections on Fangraphs, and the Nats are generally smiled upon favorably.

Below is the Nationals lineup if the season started today. Of course, with nearly three months left till Spring Training, a lot can happen.

2011 projected lineup

CF - Nyjer Morgan - .285/.347/.352 (389 AB, 1 HR, 24 RBI, 55 R)
(.253/.319/.314 - 2010)

Outlook - Morgan sees a big bounce back from James in 2011, mainly due to a correction in BABIP. In 2010, he hit a career low .304 BABIP. In 2011, James has Morgan bouncing back to a solid .334.

SS - Ian Desmond - .280/.328/.421 (561 AB, 13 HR, 66 RBI, 69 R)
(.269/.308/.392)

Outlook - Desmond projects to see quite the increase in walk rate, from 4.9 to 6.3%. While walking more, Desmond is also projected to cut his strikeouts to under 20% (19.3).

3B - Ryan Zimmerman - .291/.368/.507 (580 AB, 27 HR, 95 RBI, 94 R)
(.307/.388/.510)

Outlook - Zimmerman is the first National to see a decrease in his projections. Losing Dunn will hurt, as well as coming off a career year. As is, his 'decrease' is minimal and still puts him in the elite category of 3B.

RF - Jayson Werth - .275/.375/.493 (560 AB, 28 HR, 91 RBI, 98 R)
(.296/.388/.532)

Outlook - Quite the drop for the newest Nat. Not totally unexpected though as Citizen Bank Park is quite the hitters paradise, while Nationals Park is a slight pitching park. On the positive side, James has Werth improving his BB% and decreasing his K%

LF - Josh Willingham - .259/.369/.465 (475 AB, 22 HR, 72 RBI, 71 R)
(.268/.389/.459)

Outlook - Hammer sees a drop in all major categories outside of an uptick in power. Heading into free agency at the end of 2011, Josh will be looking to maximize his value for his one shot at a big contract.

1B - Michael Morse - .278/.337/.461 (284 AB, 11 HR, 44 RBI, 36 R)
(.289/.352/.519)

Outlook - James clearly does not believe that Morse's 2010 season was anything other than a fluke. "Werth Jr." will either need a Willingham trade, or the Nationals not being able to sign a 1B to see significant time in 2011.

2B - Danny Espinosa - .255/.312/.460 (424 AB, 21 HR, 60 RBI, 69 R)
(.214/.277/.447)

Outlook - Short sample sizes do not make for accurate projections, but Espinosa's line in 2011 looks obtainable if he can up his contact rate slightly.

C - Pudge Rodriguez - .266/.301/.373 (399 AB, 7 HR, 45 RBI, 43 R)
(.266/.294/.347)

Outlook - Surprisingly, Pudge sees an uptick in his stats from last year. Outside of the first 13 at-bats of the year for Pudge, it speaks to just how awful the backstop played in 2010.


Other notables

1B - Adam Dunn - .247/.373/.511 (567 AB, 39 HR, 102 RBI, 90 R)
(.260/.356/.536)

Outlook - Oddly enough, Dunn is projected to see a drop in slugging with the move to the AL and a cozy new ballpark. Nothing would make this blog happier than to see Dunn obliterate every HR record next year for the White Sox, the big guy deserves it.

OF - Roger Bernadina - .273/.341/.418 (194 AB, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 27 R)
(.246/.307/.384)

Outlook - Bernadina looks poised for a breakout year in 2011. Will the at-bats come? Only time will tell.

So that's it; what do you guys think? Will the Nats reach Bill's projections? Exceed them? Drop a line in the comment box and let everyone know.

Bargain bin shopping for the 2011 Nationals

Flushing Baseball Reports

Another year, another offseason of broken promises.

Life can be rough as a Nationals fan; the product is often bad, and hopes of an emergence into the national consciousness seems distant and unattainable.

Fear not loyal reader, for we here at FLOTN have scoured the 2010-2011 free agent market and have come up with a pitcher that will not only block the Luis Atilano’s and Garrett Mock’s of the world from ever pitching again as a National, but also drag the Nationals precious steps closer to the ever important appearance of respectability.

Much like a yard sale, free agency is filled with great bargains and lots and lots of junk. Like a skilled shopper, it is the job of the GM (Mike Rizzo) to sift through the clothes racks and record piles (FA list) and figure out what is worth spending money on (Starting Pitching projects), and what is shiny, but ultimately useless (Carlos Pena).

To make matters easier on Mike Rizzo, FLOTN has picked out the one diamond in the rough that could provide an enormous amount of return on the Nationals small investment. Like an old painting that just needs a new frame, this pitcher just need a little TLC, and he’ll be good as new.

For Love of the Nationals presents to you, Aaron Harang.

Harang, the 32 year old former ace of the Cincinnati Reds, had a terrible year in 2010. Harang saw a sharp rise in ERA, WHIP and BB’s and a decline in K’s. Basically, he looked nothing like the pitcher the Reds has seen for years and years. Having said that, Harang is exactly the type of pitcher the Nationals desperately need; a former ace with a chip on his shoulder who is in-line for a serious regression to the statistical norm.

In 2010, Harang saw a huge drop in two categories, Zone % (number of pitches, regardless of it being a strike or ball that were inside the strike zone) and LOB% (number of runners that were left on base, either by his own doing, or with help from the bullpen).

Pitchers lose command of the strike zone all the time, it happens, but in most cases it is correctable. That is what the Nats have to bank on if they take a chance with Harang. In 2010, Harang only managed to find the strike zone a miniscule 43.6% of the time, this, coming off a 2009 season where he found the strike zone 52.1% of the time. Compare the 43.6% with his career rate of 53.8% (including 2010) and you realize that 2010 is more of an aberration that anything. If the Nationals believe that Steve McCatty is worth his salt as a pitching coach, they should have no problem signing Harang on an incentive laden deal. Surely McCatty and Rizzo can see that Harang is throwing as hard as ever (90.5 in 2010 – 90.2 career) and still getting solid swinging strike rates (8.1% in 2010), and realize that the only thing that needs fixing is his once pinpoint control. While control was one problem Harang had in 2010, bad luck with runners on base was another.

Harang’s LOB% of 69.4% was the lowest of his career since 2003. In fact, since 2003, Harang never had a season where he didn’t strand at least 73% of the runners he allowed on base. To give some perspective, the average MLB strand rate in 2010 was 72.2%. Some of the runners scoring can be blamed on Harang, but just as much blame goes to the relievers brought in to put out any problems Harang started. In 2010, the Reds were ineffective, coming to the Nats; Harang would be dealing with a stout bullpen full of pitchers experienced in dealing with tight situations on a daily basis.

Now that his flaws are out in the open, let’s take a look at what makes Harang attractive, and clearly the best bargain of 2011.

To put it in simple terms, Harang misses bats; Nationals starting pitching does not. Since 2009, the Nationals have finished dead last in the NL in swinging strike percentage among starting pitchers. Finishing at 6.5% in 2009 and 6.7% in 2010 (Strasburg effect), Harang’s career mark of 9.7% (never lower than 8.1%) is a massive upgrade over the ‘pitch to contact’ pitchers that the Nationals employ 1-5 in their rotation. If the Nationals could snag a pitcher that actually helps the team on his own, and doesn’t rely on his fielders to do all the work, imagine the success he could have.

Aaron Harang, and to a lesser extent, Jordan Zimmermann, could be those guys.

So, there it is; sign Aaron Harang, call up Steve McCatty and get working on finding the strike zone. You get Harang’s accuracy in check; you get a bona fide ace. Simple as that.

If only finding bargains at yard sales were so easy.

Giving thanks to the 2010 Washington Nationals

2010 was not a good year for the Washington Nationals. Then again, neither was 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 or 2009.

When things could go wrong, they did go wrong. Strasburg debuted, and then blew out his elbow. The Nats played .500 ball for the first couple months and then looked as if they forgot how to play the game the rest of the year. Progress was slow, and often times unrecognizable to the average fan. With the bad times, though, one learns how to savior the good times.

While 2010 had few moments to reflect on positively, there were some, and in the spirit of Thanksgiving lets take a look back and give thanks to those that gave us a reason to cheer in 2010.

Ryan Zimmerman – So this is what the career of a Hall of Famer looks like. Blessed with amazing talent and an innate ability to produce in the clutch, Zimmerman gives Nationals fans plenty to be thankful for. Whether it is his breathtaking defense or his clutch walk off hits, Zimmerman makes fans proud of the downtrodden franchise.

Livan Hernandez – What really can be said about Livo? Working with a fastball that would have most pitchers collecting unemployment, Hernandez survives on guile, location and a curveball so slow, that major league hitters are reduced to temper tantrums as they continually swing and miss.

Adam Dunn – The ever smiling left handed slugger has been the cog in the Nationals order the past two seasons. Posting 76 HR and 208 RBI in two years, Dunn always gave fans in the bleachers hope that they might walk away with a souvenir.

Michael Morse – Show of hands, how many saw Morse having the year he had in 2010? Bursting onto the scene, first as a pinch hitter and then as an everyday Right Fielder, Morse flashed power and a high average. While Morse does not have a set position going into 2011, Nats fans will hope they’ll be giving thanks for another remarkable season from the former SS.

Tyler Clippard – The goggled one took a big leap forward in 2010. Thanks to a quirky delivery, devastating changeup and a magically ‘rising’ fastball, Clippard put up an outstanding 11.08 K/9 rate all the while lowering his walk rate.

Wil Nieves already hurting the 2011 Washington Nationals

Keith Allison/All rights reserved

We're a good 100+ days away from the start of the 2011 season, and Wil Nieves has already hurt the Washington Nationals.

Currently, the Nationals 40 man roster is full. Since the roster space is finite, including Nieves as one of the 40 is a mistake the Nationals have already come to regret.

Yesterday, all 30 MLB teams had to add eligible minor league players to their 40 man roster or risk them being exposed to the Rule V draft. The Nationals chose to add 1B Chris Marrero, RHP Adam Carr and RHP Cole Kimball. Missing from that list, is 2009 Washington Nationals Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Brad Meyers.

Meyers, who was held to six starts in 2010 due to a foot injury and subsequent allergic reaction to the screws inserted into the foot. What Meyers accomplished in 2010 should not be overlooked. In those six starts in AA, Meyers posted a 1.47 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP, and 35 K's in just 30.2 IP.

Now, on December 5, Meyers will be exposed to 29 other teams in the draft; all the while, Nieves a player who has accrued a -0.8 WAR over his career will comfortably keep a roster space he simply does not deserve.

Quite honestly, there's just not much to like about Nieves. He's at best an average defensive catcher, and to be frank, Nieves cannot hit. As his -0.8 WAR points out, even a replacement player is more deserving of a roster spot than Nieves.

In short, Nieves is a fungible asset. His potential has been reached, and, at best, he grades out as one of the worst players in the major leagues; at worst, he is the worst player in the majors.

When it comes to roster flexibility, Nieves should be the player that gets removed first. Instead, the Nationals decided to remove 23 year old RHP Juan Jaime and put him on waivers.

Immediately, Jaime was claimed by the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Jaime, who missed all of 2010 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery is exactly the type of player you stash at the bottom of the 40 man roster. Averaging over 9 K/9 in his career, Jaime is a power arm that the Nationals lack among their pitching prospects.

The Arizona Diamondbacks realize that potential is more important than protecting a player that over his career, is worse than a replacement player. By not protecting Brad Meyers or Juan Jaime, the Nationals have shown they do not.

FLOTN has made the small time!

Logged in this morning to find that a spam bot left comments on a couple of post.

Is it safe to say that FLOTN has finally reached the small time? Is receiving Spam the first sign that a website is finally getting noticed? Should getting spam comments get me this excited?

Either way, the comments have been removed and everything is back to normal.

Have a great Friday everyone!

Time for the Nationals to move Willingham

Associated Press

Today, Fangraphs ran an article talking about the desperate need of the Los Angeles Dodgers to secure an LF’er for 2010 and beyond. Josh Willingham needs to be that man.

“Hammer” as he’s known around Nats Town, is a really good guy. He’s also a really good hitter, when healthy. The problem with Josh, though, is his inability to stay healthy for long periods of time.

Willingham has made it known that he would prefer a long term deal with the Nationals; unfortunately, long term deals for guys heading into the wrong side of 30 and who are also injury prone are few and far between. Instead of waiting till the deadline to move Willingham, the Nationals should explore all avenues currently available to them. Of course, I'm not suggesting you trade Hammer for a bucket of baseballs, but, if the right deal comes along, why wait till the July trade deadline to get it done?

When the market is providing inefficiencies, you exploit it. Had the Baltimore Orioles traded Ty Wigginton when he was in the midst of a career year in May, and when the trade market was the shallowest, the Orioles could have made a killing. Instead, they overplayed their hand with Wigginton and ended up having to hold on to the 33 year old journey man when the market for below average hitters dried up.

Josh Willingham is a better player than Ty Wigginton, make no mistake about it, but the Nationals need to use Wigginton as an example of what can go wrong if you wait too long to trade away a moveable asset.

The Dodgers, for their part, are known for trading away great young talent for mediocre returns. Imagine what they might pay the Nationals for Willingham. If Casey Blake brings the Indians catching sensation Carlos Santana, what could Hammer bring back to the Nats?

With the Dodgers owners currently fighting it out in divorce court, one thing the team cannot afford to do is take on a lot of salary; one way of avoiding salary for big name players is by paying in prospects.

History of overpaying for MLB talent + the need to avoid adding large amounts of money to the payroll = a potentially huge haul for Willingham, an OF’er that is currently only under contract for one more year and more than likely will have hit his decline by the time the Nationals are ready to compete for a pennant.

If Mike Rizzo is serious about building an organization that can sustain success for many years, and not just fielding a somewhat competitive MLB club to appease the masses in 2011, Josh Willingham has to be a name that he brings up to the Los Angeles Dodgers.